老马又要睡地板了
版主： 牛河梁， alexwlt1024
#2 Re: 老马又要睡地板了
老马的机器人前途无量
What Would Happen If It's Commercialized?
Let’s assume:
It works: Capable of real, useful work (lifting, mobility, autonomy).
It’s scalable: Tesla can mass-produce millions at a reasonable cost.
It’s adopted: Real-world customers are willing to pay $20K–50K per unit.
It’s profitable: Margins are strong, and maintenance/logistics don’t eat profits.
If those are true, you’re looking at:
A Potentially Multi-Trillion Dollar Market
Labor replacement in factories, warehouses, even elderly care or service roles.
Musk suggested it could be 10X the size of the auto business.
A robot sold for $30,000 with 30% margin = $9,000 gross profit/unit.
Millions of units = tens of billions in annual profit potential.
Even if just 5–10% of those dreams materialize, Wall Street would assign Tesla an "AI robotics" multiple, not just an automaker multiple.
Could Stock Price Multiply?
Yes — Tesla could double, triple, or more if Optimus becomes a real, adopted commercial product.
But...
What Would Happen If It's Commercialized?
Let’s assume:
It works: Capable of real, useful work (lifting, mobility, autonomy).
It’s scalable: Tesla can mass-produce millions at a reasonable cost.
It’s adopted: Real-world customers are willing to pay $20K–50K per unit.
It’s profitable: Margins are strong, and maintenance/logistics don’t eat profits.
If those are true, you’re looking at:
A Potentially Multi-Trillion Dollar MarketLabor replacement in factories, warehouses, even elderly care or service roles.
Musk suggested it could be 10X the size of the auto business.
A robot sold for $30,000 with 30% margin = $9,000 gross profit/unit.
Millions of units = tens of billions in annual profit potential.
Even if just 5–10% of those dreams materialize, Wall Street would assign Tesla an "AI robotics" multiple, not just an automaker multiple.
Could Stock Price Multiply?Yes — Tesla could double, triple, or more if Optimus becomes a real, adopted commercial product.
But...
